Miami Marlins sign Aaron Rowand

The Miami Herald reported on Tuesday that Aaron Rowand was signed to a minor league contract with an offer to Spring Training.  This contract, should Rowand make the Marlins Big League team, will pay him $480k reducing the Giants $12m obligation to him to just north of $11.5m.  With all of that room now in the budget the Giants can, well do almost nothing.  Oh well, it is less than it was.

Salaries and Obligations for 2012

The Giants paid $95 million and it got them a World Series.  In an effort to keep the band together and then to shore up the roster while shipping player after player to the DL the 2011 payroll swelled to $118 million (not including the money embezzled by a Giants payroll manager). Looking ahead to 2012, the money situation and obligations look like this:

2011 2012 Contract Length
Beltran, Carlos $20 mil FA 7 yr/$119M (05-11)

Zito, Barry  $18.5 mil  $19 mil  7 yr/$126M (07-13)+14 cl opt

Lincecum, Tim  $14 mil  Arb 3  2 yr/$23M (10-11)

Huff, Aubry  $10 mil  $10 mil  2 yr/$22M (11-12)+13 cl opt

Cain, Matt  $7.3 mil  $15.3 mil  3 yr/$27.25M (10-12)

Wilson, Brian  $6.5 mil  $8.5 mil  2 yr/$15M (11-12)

Ross, Cody  $6.3 mil  FA  1 yr/$6.3M (11)

DeRosa, Mark  $6 mil  FA  2 yr/$12M (10-11)

Sanchez, Freddy  $6 mil  $6 mil  2 yr/$12M (10-11), 1 yr/$6M (12)

Sanchez, Jonathan  $4.8 mil  Arb 3  1 yr/$4.8M (11)

Affeldt, Jeremy  $4.5 mil  opt ($4.5)  2 yr/$9.5M (10-11)+12 cl opt

Lopez, Javier  $2.3 mil  FA  1 yr/$2.375M (11)

Keppinger, Jeff  $2.3 mil  Arb 3  1 yr/$2.3M (11)

Torres, Andres  $2.2 mil  Arb 2  1yr/$2.2M (11)

Ramirez, Ramon S. $1.6 mil  Arb 3  1 yr/$1.65M (11)

Casilla, Santiago  $1.3 mil  Arb 3  1 yr/$1.3M (11)

Fontenot, Mike  $1,05 mil  Arb 3  1 yr/$1.05M (11)

Burrell, Pat  $1 mil  FA  1 yr /$1M (11)

Cabrera, Orlando  $1 mil  FA  1 yr/$1M (11)

Mota, Guillermo  $925k  FA  1 yr/$0.925M (11)

Vogelsong, Ryan  $  Arb 3  1 yr (11) (No one seems to know what he made)

Posey, Buster  $575k  1 yr/$0.575M (11)

Sandoval, Pablo  $500k  Arb 1  1 yr/$0.5 (11)

Bumgarner, Madison $450k  1 yr/$0.45M (11)

Romo, Sergio  $450k  Arb 1  1 yr/$0.45M (11)

Schierholtz, Nate  $432k  Arb 1  1 yr/$0.4325M (11)

Whiteside, Eli  $425k  Arb 1  1 yr/$0.425M (11)

Runzler, Dan  $418k  1 yr/$0.4185M (11)

Belt, Brandon  $414k  1 yr/$0.414M (11)

Adrianza, Ehire  Minor League Contract (MLC)

Burriss, Emmanuel  MLC

Crawford, Brandon  MLC

Edlefsen, Steve  MLC

Ford, Darren  MLC

Gillaspie, Conor  MLC

Pill, Brett  MLC

Sanchez, Hector  MLC

Stewart, Chris  MLC

Surkamp, Eric  MLC

Rowand, Aaron  $13.6 mil  $13.6 mil  (The Giants will owe $13.6 for 2012 minus any contract that he signs with another team)


Lets start at the top.  I think the Giants should resign Beltran, but how many years and what kind of money will he be looking for will make it difficult.  If the term is reasonable (a year or two, even though he will be looking for 3 or 4 years) then sign him, any more and its a tough pill to swallow (even though Sabean has been chugging them down lately).  I would move him to left and get Schierholtz back in right, I just think Nate is better in right and that Beltran will be excellent in left (if Beltran is signed look for him to stay in right, just my two cents).

Lincecum will be looking for a 3 or 4 year deal, I say give him 7 and a pile of money.  He has proven his skill, competitiveness, athleticism and durability.  Also, offer Cain a similar deal, even though its early, and keep them together for the next 6 or 7 years, even though Cain is due a nice bump (from 7.3 to 15.3) I say nail him down.

I like Huff, but I have been clear that the amount and length, of his contract, was a mistake and his crappy season only makes it look worse.  My issue with the money and term wasn't that he didn't deserve something for last season, it was that it wasn't realistic to assume his best season in years would be repeatable and with Belt & Pill looming, all I can say is dumb!  Anyhow, he is here and were stuck with him, nobody will accept that money in a trade, but it may be possible to get someone to take a big portion of it (maybe $5 or $6 mil).

Ross, DeRosa, Burrell, Lopez, Cabrera and Mota are all free agents next season.  I would love to see Mota and Lopez stay, but the rest of the league would love to break up the Giants bullpen.  It may cost a bunch to keep those two.  I really like Ross and DeRosa, but for $6 mill each and the role that DeRosa will play is too steep.  Perhaps for less money, the team, management and I love the guy.

Ross, is a much more difficult proposition.  He can platoon with Torres in center, take it if Andres has another down season (which would spell the end of him) or play any other outfield position to rest Beltran or Schierholtz, and comes through in the clutch offensively.  He has had a bum season by comparison to 2010 and his career stats, but as a veteran, he should bounce back and his numbers in 2011let the Giants sign him at similar or less guaranteed with incentives.

Jeff Keppinger is a more difficult guy to place.  With Freddy Sanchez coming back (we hope at 100%) Keppinger seems like the odd man out, but, I really like the guy on offense and defense; if Freddy isn't the guy he was, JK is a perfect replacement and possibly a good long term fit at second base when Freddy is gone.  However, he will probably cost $3 mil next season and may want a 3 or 4 year deal to take less in 2012.

Cabrera is almost certainly gone.  With Winter-ball and spring to see how Crawford develops, the team can look at the SS position and either Fontenot and/or Burriss as the infield utility guy.  The question is if the team will ever value Burriss as much as they value Fontenot?  If not, I think Burriss is gone to a Minor League FA contract, as Eugeneo Valez and others have.  The Giants minor league system is very well developed and players can languish there, when they may get a better Big League shot somewhere else.  I think Short Stop is Crawfords to loose.  If he isn't where they want him to be, a short stop could be the big trade for Jonathan Sanchez and/or some other arbitration eligible player.

A bite on the payroll to note, is the $13.6 mil owed to Rowand for next season. If he gets a job elsewhere the difference is taken, but I think someone will give him $6 or $8 and the Giants will be on the hook for the rest.

Laslty, regarding the pitching staff, the only issue is having too many options.  Zito isn't going anywhere unless the team is willing to eat $45 mil. and they won't.  Zito's contributions & money owed vs. the uncertainty about Sanchez and question of Vogelsong's ability to repeat this years performance, make Zito a certainty to be back in the #5 spot.  I hope Vogelsong can repeat and with Surkamp on the back burners, I would shop Sanchez.  I hate to say it, but despite his obvious talent, his lack of mental control and the truckload of money that his agent, Scott Boras, will be looking for make him the guy to trade, but only for a significant upgrade, somewhere, such as Short Stop or Center Field.

Torres was off this season, raising questions of fluke performance last season, which leaves a weakness in center and at the lead off spot, without a clear options.  Ross wasn't much better; Ford may still need some time to prove he's an every day player and Christian hasn't exactly set the world on fire.


As of this moment the opening lineup next year may look like this:

1 - Torres or Ross
2 - F. Sanchez
3 - Beltran or Sandoval
4 - Sandoval or Beltran
5 - Posey
6 - Schierholtz
7 - Belt or Huff
8 - Crawford
9 - Pitcher

Beltran, Sandoval and Posey can flip around and should be formidable in the middle of the order.  If Schierholtz can continue to hit like he did this season, he would make an excellent # 6 as can Belt/Huff/Pill.  Laslty, the 1 and 2 spot, table setters have to be able to get on and steal bases as Torress (in 2010) and Freddy can.  This group, if productive, make Crawford's offense a bit less important; however, if he can hit .250 (and looking at his minor league numbers, he can) it's all good.

The final question is about the backup catcher.  Eli is an excellent backup catcher, knows the pitching staff; however, he has been a significant drop off in offense from Posey and has a good, but not great arm.  Stewart, has a cannon and was really good with the pitching staff, he can hit, but will he at the Big League level.  Sanchez is the wild card.  He has been very good and may require a year or two, but he would make a really good backup.  So, the big question "will Eli be back next year?"  I don't think so...

Let's look at the numbers.  Current Obligations are; Lincecum will be at $20 or $22 mil, Zito is at $19, Cain at $15.3, Huff at $10, Wilson at $8.5, Freddy Sanchez at $6; which puts the big contract obligations at  $79.8 mil. Plus, $13.6 for Rowand = $93.4 mil

Beltran will want at least another $20 mil, Affeldt has a $4.5 option, Lopez at $4 mil, Mota at $2 or $3 mil, then there is Romo, Sandoval, Schierholtz, Vogelsong, Casilla, Rameriez, Torres, J. Sanchez, Fontenot and Keppinger who are all arbitration eligible and I don't have a clue what the team will pay them and if any will be traded.  My point is that the payroll could easily go through the moon and the big money to Rowand, Zito and Huff will add to the difficult crop of these Arbitration eligible negotiations even before you add Ross, DeRosa and Burrell into the mix.

So, what will next years payroll look like?

If I missed something or you think I'm wrong, let it fly, I want your input...

Update1: If the Giants do not sign Beltran then the lineup will probably look something like this:


1 - Torres or Ross
2 - F. Sanchez
3 - Sandoval
4 - Posey
5 - Belt or Huff
6 - Schierholtz
7 - Ross or Burrell
8 - Crawford
9 - Pitcher


Unless significant changes are made.

Sabean has a habit of "rewarding" veterans by over paying, it continues to bit hard.

Let me start by saying that I am going to pick on Brian Sabean about this one issue.  In general, I really like what he has managed to do with the team since becoming GM and hope he stays for a long while.  He has built out the Giants minor league system into one of the four best producers of MLB talent in the game (especially Pitchers).  He has also made trades that have surprisingly, strengthened the team each year.  Of course there are those trades that have been duds, like the Sidney Ponson, Shea Hilenbrand and the king of the duds, the A. J. Pierzynski trade that sent Nathan, Liriano and Bonser to the Twins.  In contrast, he make stellar trades for Jeff Kent, Kirk Rueter, Jason Schmidt, Robb Nen and Cody Ross; while recently grabbing cast offs Huff and Burrell.

Trades aside, the deals that brought several to the team in recent years, just do not make any sense.  Randy Winn and Dave Roberts were great Giants and are reportedly good guys, but hardly worth $9 and $7 mil per season.  The same can be said for Aaron Roward ($9.5 mil per season where he has never earned more than $4.5 in his prime) and averaged $3.5 mil, Aubry Huff's new contract if for $22 mil over two seasons or $30 mil over 3 years (Two years @ $10 mil per and a club option for a third @ $10 mil or a $ 2mil buy out), where he has never earned more than $8 in his best years and $4.5 mil on average (There is a reason that he was only $3 mil in 2010).  Edgar Renteria, who was a brilliant clutch hitter in the post season, has made us forget that he spent most of the season, as well as the 2009 season, on the DL for $9 mill per season (average $8 mil per plus a $2 mil buy out) and then there is Barry Zito who had never earned more than $8 mil and averaged $5 mil with Oakland, received a 7 year $126 mil deal with a option for $18 mil or a $7 mil buy out.  That's right, it will cost the Giants $7,000,000 to send him packing in 2014 or $18,000,000 to keep him making the total deal worth $133 mil to get rid of him after 2013 or $144 mil to keep him through 2014. By the way, the option would become guaranteed if Zito pitches 200 innings in 2013, 400 combined innings over 2012 and 2013 or 600 innings from 2011-2013 and Zito has a full no-trade clause, we may have him in 2014, like it or not.

It may not be fair to put the Barry Zito deal squarely on Brian Sabean, as Peter McGowan has fallen on his sword over this one.  However, knowing what we do about the Giants, it's Sabean who makes these things happen and works with a group inside of the Giants to sell it to the investors.  I am certain that Sabean AND McGowan made the Zito deal happen and it is tragic.  Not because of the failed promise, but that he was never going to live up to that deal.  Trade Rumors and the Chronicle have both published that the largest offer for Zito was a 5 year deal for $75 mil from the Mets and a far less expensive 7 year deal from the Rangers.  The Mets GM said after the Giants deal,

"We were not willing to go to the seven-year areas he said he had," said Minaya, who conducted studies on the performances of pitchers with lengthy deals. "This is one guy who has been healthy, and we all wish him well. At the end of the day, the history ... I could not recommend to my ownership to go to seven guaranteed years."


Minaya looks like a genius over this one.

ESPN reported that the deal was the highest for a pitcher in baseball history and "Only Alex Rodriguez ($252 million), Derek Jeter ($189 million), Manny Ramirez ($160 million),Todd Helton ($141.5 million) and Alfonso Soriano ($136 million) have contracts with more guaranteed money.


Huff probably could have been singed for $6 or $7 mil per season and with Belt crawling up the walls in the minors, why not sign him to a one or two year deal at $6, while Belt feels his way in.  Did Sabean really think Belt would be another Ishikawa?


Renteria was told that the team would buy him out and offer him $1 mil, effectively giving him $3 mil for this season.  He turned it down and went to the Reds for $2.01 mil.  With the injuries (which you cannot for see) he would have filled in for Pablo at third and then short, effectively negating the Tejada and Cabrera deals (Unless Renteria got hurt); which cost the giants a prospect and Tejada's salary, which far exceed the extra $1mil.  Unless Renteria was determined to go elsewhere after the Giants bought him out of the $10 mil due on the option for 2011.

I think Miguel Tejada would have taken less than $6.5 mil, but not much less.  Like Zito, Aaron Rowand's deal was just too long.  If it were a three year deal then we wouldn't be talking about this.  He would have been gone after the 2010 season and that would be that, but they are both still here and its killing us to watch them struggle and sit on the bench.  Last season the top paid guys were Zito, Rowand and Renteria.

The Beltran deal makes more sense now than it did when it was a rumor, but his trip to the DL hurts BAD.  The revolving door at second base following F. Sanchez has hopefully stabilized with Keppinger (whom I really like the way he plays and he only costs the prospect who may or may not have made the Giants rotation).  DeRosa's wrist has cost $6 mil per season.

With all of the unforeseen injuries and frantic signings to keep on track, which the Giants are not, the high cost of several over paid veterans seems like a foreseeable mistake that someone like Sabean should have been able to avoid.  Or is it, when he screws up, he goes big or goes home?

All Salary Data comes courtesy of Doug Pappas, and the Society for American Baseball Research. 

Manufactured Rowand controversy

I don't know about you, but I am sick of the bloggers and a few sports writers making a big deal out of the Rowand statement to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times.

The issue is an out of context excerpt from the article:

JC: Thing you miss most about playing for Chicago?

Rowand: Wearing the road uniform. And you know why? Because it said ‘Chicago’ across the front. I got goose bumps every time I would put it on.

JC: Not so with San Francisco?

Rowand: [Pause] Let’s talk about the Bears again.

And this is how a blogger responds to the statement:

Now, my first initial thought? San Francisco is where he works. He doesn’t have to like the city or the fans, for that matter. I’ve never known any sane professional athlete outside of Lance Berkman who didn’t care for SF, but Aaron never struck me as the brightest crayon in the box so I’ll let that pass. Fine. He can prefer Chi-town to The City.

Second thought being Rowand was an intricate part of the White Sox World Series team, something he was far from last year during the Giants run. Okay, so the White Sox ring has more value and merit to him – understandable. Silly, but, I get it.

The story was about the Bears an his childhood affinity for them.  The interviewer asked him about SF compared to Chicago on his jersey and, as he later clarified, instead of saying something that might be taken out of context and upsetting someone from SF or Chicago, he asked that the interview get back on track.

If these bloggers were to ACTUALLY pay attention to the comment IN CONTEXT, he would have read that Rowand was not bashing SF.

It is extremely annoying when people manufacture controversy just because they don't like him or the way he has been playing while in SF, especially when they take something out of context AND go the extra mile to "interpret" the comment for everyone without a basis in fact. Rowand has mentioned several times that his play has been disappointing and that he does not feel like he is living up to his contract. His professionalism, despite his, the teams and the fans frustration; has been exemplary and as a DH, he has been stellar (.325 Avg. per CSN Bay Area)

If I want to get frustrated about anything it's how Sabean can continue to "reward" veterans with asinine contracts that do not make sense. Rentaria, Huff, Rowand & Zito quickly come to mind.  I'll pull some numbers and hit this again in another post.  But, this Rowand controversy, just isn't worth the manufactured weight of the argument.

The Trade Deadline is gone are the Giants a better team?

Brian Sabean worked some magic and gave up a top prospect to nab Carlos Beltran, which certainly makes the Giants a better team (thought 2 for 18 over the last 4 games isn't what we were hoping for).  However, Orlando Cabrera is a more puzzling acquisition.  Offensively his numbers are not any better than Tejada's and offensively he is a minor upgrade over Tejada and less so than Brendan Crawford (Crawford's .190 batting average is a clear indication that he just isn't adjusting to Major League pitching and may need more time in the minors).  However, Fontenot has both the offensive numbers and defensive range.  lastly, Tejada is due $6m and the Giants knew that Tejada has lost a bit of range, so if Sabean and Bochy were counting on more offence, then certainly Cabrera doesn't make much sense? Does it???

Crawford is headed down to the Minors to make room for Cabrera, Hall was designated for assignment and Burriss was sent down.  Zito has another "injury", so there is now room for Sanchez to come off of the DL and Freddie Sanchez is now "officially" out for the rest of the season.  Is the new policy to keep players on the DL when Bochy isn't sure what to do with them? Tejada is due back soon, as is Burrell, DeRosa and presumably Zito has to come off at some point.  My bet is on a DL shuffle until September 1st when the roster expands to the full 40.

Anyone know what Sabean and Bochy are thinking?  Or is this just a spend and patch until ... what?  Guys can't get out of their funk if they don't play.  A bunch of money isn't hitting, sitting on the bench or hanging  on to the DL.  Anyone???

I'm also ignoring the Cincinnati series for a few reasons 1) it gave the Reds some hope, 2) it was a worse than normal pitching performance, 3) the series was a worse than average bullpen performance and 4) no bats, even from our new right fielder.  The trade deadline is always a weird time for a team and after the Phillies series it clearly impacted the Giants (that's my explanation and I'm sticking to it).

Update:  Initially Mark DeRosa's return date was "August", however, as of this afternoon it was changed to TDB, and he was moved to the 60-day DL.

The Second Half

Now that the All Star Game has passed and we have had a good look at where the Giants are (record, health, pitching, etc..), it is a good time to look at the trade deadline, expansion and the dog days leading to the playoffs.

My feeling is that, while the Giants are maintaining, they are far from where they need to be to be competitive for the playoffs.  The fact that they are in first is nothing short of miraculous considering the injuries and lack of production from too many important bats.  lets recap...

Injuries
Freddie Sanchez - Gone for the season
Buster Posey - Gone for the season
Mark DeRosa - May be back before the playoffs
Johnathan Sanchez - Out for now (1st rehab start this weekend)
Bill Hall - Should be back soon

Absent Offensive Production
Aubry Huff
Chris Stewart

Emmanuel Burriss

Brandon Crawford

Eli Whiteside (much improved over the last 5 games)

Pat Burrell
Cody Ross
Andres Torres
Aaron Rowand


I would have added Miguel Tejada to the list a month ago, but lately he has been hitting well, and Mike Fontenote except he is in a  gray area having only recently being activated from the DL.

So, we have dead bats in the outfield, except for the recent run from Nate.  The only production from the infield has been from Sandoval (also, recently activated) and the pitching staff.  The only difference between this year and last is more injuries this year and more 1 run or walk-off wins.

So, solutions...  anyone..  Please do not say Carlos Beltran.  His contract just doesn't make sense unless Sabean is willing to start dropping Burrell, Huff and/or Rowand/Ross.  Are we willing to give up on those non-producers?

Torres needs to start leading off with a better OBP (.823 last year, .672 currently this year) with a .044 drop in batting average this season.

Huff was paid a pile of money and his OPS has dropped from .881 to .660 with a .052 drop in batting average this season, so far.

Burrel and Rowand aren't even playing because when they do they strike out.  Stewart and Whiteside are in the difficult position of having to suddenly catch this staff full time and produce at the plate, which Whiteside seems to be improving with a jump in his batting average of almost .050 points and the all important RBI's.

Are we ready to give up on this team and hire a gun for the stretch, parking good players who were instrumental in last years run and wins or do we hope for health for the rest of the season and for some of these guys to pick it up?

My vote is to look at a catcher for the season to compliment Whiteside and give Steward more time in the minors and then wait out Huff, Ross, Burrell & Torres.  These guys can carry us again.  The question is who would the catcher be?  Ivan Rodriguez, Jose Molina, someone else??

This will certainly keep Bochy's wheels turning.

As usual, let me know if I screwed something up, if you agree or disagree and if your interested in contributing to this site.


UPDATE: Looks like Burrell is on the DL now as well.

NLCS Game 3 Review in San Francisco, maybe the best Giants game in my 40 years (so far)

By Brad Morrison

Pandemonium!  It't the only way to describe the reaction of the fans after Juan Uuuuuuu-ribe lifted a Roy Oswalt pitch into left field which allowed Aubry Huff to score on the Sac fly and send the Giants to a 3-1 lead in the NLCS, beating the Phillies 5-4 in game 4.

This game was the essential team effort.  Everyone contributed, pitchers, fielders, hitters.  Buster Posey was arguably the most inpactfull player having a great day at the plate going 4 for 5 with two RBI's and then scooping a seed from Aaron Rowand and holding on through the collision to tag out Carlos Ruiz at the plate.  Pablo Sandavol's great at bats, Cody Ross, stay hot and note to all Phillies pitchers "keep pitching him low and in", Aubry Huff, Pat the Bat, Aaron Rowand with a nice plate approch and then "the throw".  Torres with a great plate appearance against Oswalt taking a walk when every pitch was to the scouting report, the bullpen (Romo gave up the hit and then was lights out) and then Willson.  Brian Willson jumped into the dougout after the game and howelled like a wolf, looked at his team mates and said "we are going to win this, right her, right now, not flights to Philly".

This might have been the best Giants game that I have seen in 40 years, so far.  I think it was a defining moment for this team.  The Giants took the lead, then the Phillies took the lead, then the Giants took it back, then the Phillies tied it, neither team quit, Charlie Manual threw the kitchen sink and the Oswalt at the Giants only to come up short.  And the stones from Oswalt to tell his skipper to give him the ball.  A great game, I'm glad to have witnessed it.