Tim Kawakami breaks down the 10 positive things to take from the 2011 season and looks to 2012. I'm not sure I agree with the Zito position, but his lack of mention to Vogelsong, may mean that he believes Vogie will ask fro a few bucks as a free agent next year. Either way, the prospect of J. Sanchez and Zito as the 4, 5 pitchers isn't what I would be rejoicing about. I want Vogelsong back in the 4 spot and let the money and spring determine the 5 spot. Vogelsong has earned the spot.
-Many of us–yes, even a sweet & kind writer like me–have focused almost wholly on the Giants’ faults for the last several months.
Because there are faults. And because winning the World Series last year elevated the way the 2011 were–and had to be–judged.
Hey, the Giants owners themselves cut loose their managing general partner this season, so you know it’s a harsh time.
But after last night’s Arizona clinching, and with the Giants a few hours or days away from total playoff elimination, I figured it’s time to remember that there were, indeed, real bright spots to this season.
All was not lost. In fact, on balance, facing what the Giants faced and with the extra pressure of trying against hope to repeat, I’d say it was not a bad effort, realistically.
Not great, obviously. But not terrible.
* Here’s my list of the 10 most positive developments for the Giants in 2011…
1. They didn’t quit, when they could have done exactly that four or five separate times, starting in late-May when Buster Posey went down and continuing through just a few weeks aago.
Of course, the pitching is what kept the Giants churning, day after day, even in the lowest times. But it’s a credit to the entire roster that, when they all could’ve checked out, time and again, they didn’t.
Well, not all of them, anyway.
It was, in many ways, keyed by Bruce Bochy’s persona–stoic at times, but steel-eyed and determined to keep moving forward, if possible.
The most recent and perhaps most impressive example is the 8-game winning streak that started immediately after the Giants basically fell out of the NL West race and kept them in it mathematically, at least until the D-Backs started splashing in the outfield pool.
Bonus: The late run might’ve given Carlos Beltran something good to remember about his time in SF.
The Giants won’t get into the big free-agent bidding, but if Beltran doesn’t get a monster offer, he could be searching for a fallback, and maybe the Giants are a third-tier fallback for him.
-Conclusion: Bochy still has control of the clubhouse.
2. The Giants’ pitching was fantastic once again, and, even more importantly,stayed healthy despite carrying the whole burden.
Look at the injuries to Boston’s staff. Look at Atlanta’s staff. Look at the A’s.
Good pitching can be fragile and good pitching in back-to-back seasons of high-stress can absolutely get ravaged.
Yet, the Giants’ top starters were as good or better than they were in 2010–they got 30+ starts out of Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner.
That’s AFTER all those extra innings last October.
Plus, with the addition of Ryan Vogelsong (basically subbing in for Jonathan Sanchez, eventually), the 1-through-4 rotation was more dependable than ever.
And nothing is a better predictor for future health than past and current health. Especially for young pitchers.
No rotation ever goes forever without some injury issue, but these are excellent signs for the sustained long-term health of the Giants’ rotation.
Bonus positivity: None of the top four starters are eligible for free-agency this off-season. (Lincecum and Vogelsong are slated to hit arbitration, Cain has one more year before he’s a F/A, Bumgarner has more year before he gets to arbitration.)
Double-bonus positivity: The Giants seem to have finally given up the ghost on Barry Zito. He should comes to camp with less than a 10% chance of winning a starting spot in 2012.
What they do with Zito after that, I don’t know, but if they want to win, they can’t ever pencil him in as a regular starter.
-Conclusion: The Giants’ big three of Lincecum, Cain and Bumgarner are long-term horses, and that alone should keep the Giants in contention into 2012.
3. Buster Posey is on track to return as a catcher for 2012.
Clearly, this still has to be proven once Posey gets to spring training and shows his ankle can take the day-after-day grind behind the plate.
But everybody knows that Posey is much more valuable to the Giants as a catcher than at first base or anywhere else he might have to be moved to.
There are a lot of guys as good as Posey at 1B in the NL. There are none who play catcher, except him.
Posey might never catch 140 games again, and might move to 1B eventually, but it’s a positive sign for the Giants to be talking solely about him as a catcher six months before Opening Day 2012.
-Conclusion: Posey is still odds-on to be the Giants’ most important player for the next decade, and teams with great catchers usually win consistently.
4. The Giants re-signed (and wasted some money on) Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell partly to maintain the good vibes of 2010, but they avoided over-committing to Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria.
I thought Uribe was a big, big loss, but he had a horrendous season with the Dodgers–2010 might’ve been his last flash. And it’s not like Miguel Tejada made anybody forget about Uribe or Renteria’s 2010 contributions.
And OK, the team’s commitment to Huff partially blocked Brandon Belt, but Belt had his own struggles this season. (Burrell doesn’t count as a big bad deal because he only cost $1M.)
But the reality is that the Giants could’ve gone nutso to bring back their 2010 heroes in free-agency, and all they really got stuck with is an extra year of Huff.
-Conclusion: The Giants’ payroll in 2012 isn’t looking good, but it could’ve been A LOT worse if they’d tossed money at two more aging infielders last off-season.
5. Pablo Sandoval re-emerged as a true middle-order hitter.
Really, until Beltran kicked it into gear a few weeks aftter his acquisition, Sandoval was the Giants’ only dangerous hitter.
The Giants sure need him. But they had better keep monitoring his weight, because it went back up as the season wore on.
-Conclusion: Sandoval and Posey are the core of the Giants’ lineup, and should be for many years. Now all they have to do is find three or four more solid hitters–which is better than having to find five or six.
6. The Giants ate up another year of the horrendous Zito contract(two more to go!) and cut loose Aaron Rowand (with one year left) and Miguel Tejada.
The problem is that, together, the money owed to Zito and Rowand still basically makes it impossible for the Giants to go after a huge free agent for another two years or so.
-Conclusion: Any year where the Giants are in semi-contention with the Zito and Rowand deals weighing them down is a pretty good year.
7. The Giants probably have found something in Brett Pill.
I was as skeptical as most were about a 27-year-old, six-year minor-leaguer, but all Pill has done is hit–1.019 OPS in his first 10 games–in his brief time in the majors.
Nobody should write him in for 500 plate-appearances next season, but given the Giants’ need for power bats, Pill has to be somebody they look at for time at 1B.
I think he goes into 2012 spring training slightly behind Belt in the 1B derby (and Belt can also play LF), and on almost equal footing with Huff. That’s being realistic.
-Conclusion: When somebody’s hitting in the high-minors, the Giants’ can’t afford to pooh-pooh anything about him, at any time.
8. The Giants have a budding closer-of-the-future in Sergio Romo.
Forget the triple to Goldschmidt last night–Romo has been incredible almost all season and did one of the toughest things in baseball: Followed up a good set-up season with a great set-up season.
-Conclusion: Brian Wilson is the guy, but he might not have to be the only guy in 2012, especially if his elbow keeps barking at him.
9. The Giants didn’t burn service time and rush OF Gary Brown to the big club in September.
A mid-season jump from A-ball to the big leagues is too much for a young hitter.
-Conclusion: Brian Sabean and his staff stuck to their guns on this one, and they were right. Justin Christian did everything Brown might’ve, and probably more.
10. They could win almost 90 games while also scoring the fewest runs in the National League.
-Conclusion: How many games can they win if they move into the middle of the offensive pack? Answer: They could have another parade if that happens soon.
