By Brad Morrison
MLB General Managers who found themselves asking how to address the Giants pitching rotation have had to take another look and ask how to address the Giants AND the Phillies pitching rotation. When you layout the yard stick, its easy to match Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner against any playoff pitching 4 in baseball (after their performance in this years playoffs and World Series); however, now that the Phillies have added Cliff Lee, its impossible not to reassess the length of the stick.
I'm sure Brian Sabean thought the Giants were in good shape by singing his arbitration eligible guys (securing the bullpen) and getting Tejada to replace Uribe at SS. With Burrell and a few prospects, leaning back in his office chair with a smile and feeling good about their 2011 chances wasn't out of the question.
The surprise signing by Cliff Lee to the Phillies, which wasn't considered an option due to the trade of Lee to Seattle for "financial concerns" and the cost of replacing Werth. However, Lee signed a 5 year $120 deal (with a vesting option and a possible 6th year) which will add him to the assault force of Halliday, Oswalt and Hamels for at least the next two seasons. The big questions remaining when you look at the Giants chances against the Phillies to repeat are focused on the 5th starter and the Phillies bullpen/closer. Phillies are clearly taking a "shot over the bow" at the Giants and hoping that the big 4 rotation can take them deep into games while keeping the score low so they don;t have to score 6 or 8 runs to win a game. If they can compete in 2 to 1 ballgames, the power of Werth is potentially less important, as the Giants have shown
Clearly the Giants, by retaining their pen and with Brian Wilson in tow, are the favorites to close out a game. So, the Giants should be able to push through the west, with about 50 assumptions and offensive concerns working for us this year. However, since the Padres have dealt Adrian Gonsolez and the Dodgers are a mess (particular due to the ownership marital problems and a new head coach), it remains to be seen how healthy the Rockies can stay as well as the question of a repete performance from Ubaldo Jimenez.
A match-up against the Phillies in the NLDS or NLCS will be interesting. Clearly, Brian Sabean will be looking at his team and comparing them to the strong in the west and the Phillies all season. No doubt he will make some mid season and late season moves if the Phillies deliver and stay healthy.
Giants fans, we are in for a wild ride in 2011, we will have to wait a few months into the season before its dubbed torture or not.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Defending the crown is a delicate balance, what it takes to repeat
By Brad Morrison
Do the Giants really want to get the band back together. The answer is an emphatic Yes... and No...
Budget, skill, age, length of contracts, youth and prospects all play a part in ensuring a team like the Giants can compete against the other teams in the West who will desperately trying to upgrade. The big questions are will the Giants have to break $100m and the answer is yes, without a doubt; will the two big money guys of Zito and Rowand contribute $30m worth toward a return to the series, and the answer is probably not, but there isn't anything that the Giants can do about it since nobody will take them without the Giants shouldering all of their contracts. Which leaves $70m plus for Lincecum's $13'm and Huff's money, probably somewhere around $9m or $10m depending on other teams interest in him.
The next level of questions revolve around Uribe, Burrell, all of the arbitration eligible players and prospects. The Giants may lose Uribe if he and his agent want a long term contract, I suspect the Giants will offer 1 or 2 years where Uribe wants 3 or 4. Burrell, after a nice stretch had such an abysmal playoff's that the Giants should be able to sign him (if they even want to) for something very reasonable. Pat Burrell should not be over looked having contributed so much to the Giants playing well enough to catch and pass San Diego, but when the real rubber was to meet the road, he just didn't deliver. This will significantly reduce the teams interested in him (where the opposite situation exists with Uribe). If the Giants lose Uribe, then I hope they give Burriss a shot, the kid has nice defensive numbers and looked like an option last season until he broke his foot in Spring Training. His offensive numbers in winter ball and in the Spring will tell the tail. The free agent marked for Short Stops is a bit soft, but there are a few 1 or 2 year guys out there.
The arbitration eligible guys of Torres, Ross, Fontenot, Sanchez, Ramirez, Ray, Castilla and Lopez should get nice offers. These guys are key, especially the pitchers. Keeping the rotation and bullpen together is the only way to build on what made the Giants successful in 2010. A less effective pen is not an option, since every other team in baseball will be seeking to do the same thing. As for Torres, Ross and Fontenot, you have to keep them. Torres doesn't make a pile of money and was one of the best center fielders in baseball. His ability to lead off and speed on the bases is required. If Torres is to progress he has to learn to be a better base stealer. Cody Ross is one of those guys that is hot and cold during the season but was lights out in the playoffs. Offer him a 2 or 3 year deal and move on. He offers a nice right or left field and occasional pop at the plate. With Pablo's ability to play 3rd and hit in question and Freddie Sanchez's health always an issue, Fontenot is a good guy to have as a utility infielder, especially with Uribe's status up in the air.
As for Prospects, the Giants have Crawford and Adrinza at short stop, it remains to be seen if they can transition into effective big league shortstops offensively (no Troy Tulowitzki's here) but at lease the position, with Burriss should be covered defensively in the next year or two. The best prospect comes in the form of 1st baseman Brandon Belt. This kid is a legitimate hitter with a nice glove. I would like to see him stay in the minors for another season and then come up for the 2012 season to work with Huff, but if he rips it up in the minors he could find his way up earlier. If he turns into the stud that Posey is likely to, what a potent middle of the order punch for years to come. Obviously, if he can beat out Huff at first, Huff can transition to the outfield for the remainder of his contract.
The moral of this story is that many team will try to emulate the Giants success, with better hitting. They will find it difficult to put the complete rotation, plus bullpen and closer that the Giants have for several years and a ton of money, together. However, without a better offense the Giants will continue to struggle to win games and will not cement their starters as 20 game winners until they do. The hope was that Sandoval and Posey would produce the nucellus of a potent offense, but that remains to be seen. I caution against assuming Posey will be brilliant next season, though I hope and that Pablo Sandoval can come back, but I hope.
Update: The Giants signed Aubry Huff to a two year $22m deal, paying him $10m for each of the first two seasons with a $2m buy out on a club option for 2013. While I like Huff and encouraged the Giants to sign him, I think $22m is too high a price to pay. Huff, 34 years old, has never made more than $8m and was released in 2009 after having a miserable season. I hope that he continues to produce, but as is often the case, career high seasons after being released are not repeated.
Update 2: Well its a done deal, the Giants will miss the pop and club house enthusiasm of Juan Uribe. My understanding is that the Giants offered him a two year deal and he went with the three year $21m deal that the Dodgers offered. The only thing that grinds a Giants fan more than loosing a player is loosing him to the Dodgers. As much as I like Juan Uribe, I hope he flounders in L.A.
Update 3: Hours after Juan Uribe signed his deal with the Dodgers, and claimed to have no control over where he play's, several times; the Giants signed former A's, Oriels, Padres short stop Miguel Tejada to a one year $7m deal to fill in the hole at Shortstop. Tejada is an able SS with a good bat, though he has lost some pop over the years. I think he will be a good match to Freddie Sanchez in the middle, with a better glove than Uribe and a clubhouse attitude similar to Uribe. Once again, I think he is getting a bit too much money, but at least the term is reasonable.
Do the Giants really want to get the band back together. The answer is an emphatic Yes... and No...
Budget, skill, age, length of contracts, youth and prospects all play a part in ensuring a team like the Giants can compete against the other teams in the West who will desperately trying to upgrade. The big questions are will the Giants have to break $100m and the answer is yes, without a doubt; will the two big money guys of Zito and Rowand contribute $30m worth toward a return to the series, and the answer is probably not, but there isn't anything that the Giants can do about it since nobody will take them without the Giants shouldering all of their contracts. Which leaves $70m plus for Lincecum's $13'm and Huff's money, probably somewhere around $9m or $10m depending on other teams interest in him.
The next level of questions revolve around Uribe, Burrell, all of the arbitration eligible players and prospects. The Giants may lose Uribe if he and his agent want a long term contract, I suspect the Giants will offer 1 or 2 years where Uribe wants 3 or 4. Burrell, after a nice stretch had such an abysmal playoff's that the Giants should be able to sign him (if they even want to) for something very reasonable. Pat Burrell should not be over looked having contributed so much to the Giants playing well enough to catch and pass San Diego, but when the real rubber was to meet the road, he just didn't deliver. This will significantly reduce the teams interested in him (where the opposite situation exists with Uribe). If the Giants lose Uribe, then I hope they give Burriss a shot, the kid has nice defensive numbers and looked like an option last season until he broke his foot in Spring Training. His offensive numbers in winter ball and in the Spring will tell the tail. The free agent marked for Short Stops is a bit soft, but there are a few 1 or 2 year guys out there.
The arbitration eligible guys of Torres, Ross, Fontenot, Sanchez, Ramirez, Ray, Castilla and Lopez should get nice offers. These guys are key, especially the pitchers. Keeping the rotation and bullpen together is the only way to build on what made the Giants successful in 2010. A less effective pen is not an option, since every other team in baseball will be seeking to do the same thing. As for Torres, Ross and Fontenot, you have to keep them. Torres doesn't make a pile of money and was one of the best center fielders in baseball. His ability to lead off and speed on the bases is required. If Torres is to progress he has to learn to be a better base stealer. Cody Ross is one of those guys that is hot and cold during the season but was lights out in the playoffs. Offer him a 2 or 3 year deal and move on. He offers a nice right or left field and occasional pop at the plate. With Pablo's ability to play 3rd and hit in question and Freddie Sanchez's health always an issue, Fontenot is a good guy to have as a utility infielder, especially with Uribe's status up in the air.
As for Prospects, the Giants have Crawford and Adrinza at short stop, it remains to be seen if they can transition into effective big league shortstops offensively (no Troy Tulowitzki's here) but at lease the position, with Burriss should be covered defensively in the next year or two. The best prospect comes in the form of 1st baseman Brandon Belt. This kid is a legitimate hitter with a nice glove. I would like to see him stay in the minors for another season and then come up for the 2012 season to work with Huff, but if he rips it up in the minors he could find his way up earlier. If he turns into the stud that Posey is likely to, what a potent middle of the order punch for years to come. Obviously, if he can beat out Huff at first, Huff can transition to the outfield for the remainder of his contract.
The moral of this story is that many team will try to emulate the Giants success, with better hitting. They will find it difficult to put the complete rotation, plus bullpen and closer that the Giants have for several years and a ton of money, together. However, without a better offense the Giants will continue to struggle to win games and will not cement their starters as 20 game winners until they do. The hope was that Sandoval and Posey would produce the nucellus of a potent offense, but that remains to be seen. I caution against assuming Posey will be brilliant next season, though I hope and that Pablo Sandoval can come back, but I hope.
Update: The Giants signed Aubry Huff to a two year $22m deal, paying him $10m for each of the first two seasons with a $2m buy out on a club option for 2013. While I like Huff and encouraged the Giants to sign him, I think $22m is too high a price to pay. Huff, 34 years old, has never made more than $8m and was released in 2009 after having a miserable season. I hope that he continues to produce, but as is often the case, career high seasons after being released are not repeated.
Update 2: Well its a done deal, the Giants will miss the pop and club house enthusiasm of Juan Uribe. My understanding is that the Giants offered him a two year deal and he went with the three year $21m deal that the Dodgers offered. The only thing that grinds a Giants fan more than loosing a player is loosing him to the Dodgers. As much as I like Juan Uribe, I hope he flounders in L.A.
Update 3: Hours after Juan Uribe signed his deal with the Dodgers, and claimed to have no control over where he play's, several times; the Giants signed former A's, Oriels, Padres short stop Miguel Tejada to a one year $7m deal to fill in the hole at Shortstop. Tejada is an able SS with a good bat, though he has lost some pop over the years. I think he will be a good match to Freddie Sanchez in the middle, with a better glove than Uribe and a clubhouse attitude similar to Uribe. Once again, I think he is getting a bit too much money, but at least the term is reasonable.
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